Pablo Brenner & Sergio Fogel Blog

Se publico un informe parcial de la Comision Winograd (la comision que nombro el gobierno israeli para investigar la ultima guerra en el Libano).

Recomiendo leerlo, no por temas de politica internacional sino por dos razones principales:

1. Se puede criticar (y yo lo hago) a Israel por muchas cosas, pero en temas de democracia y separacion de poderes es un ejemplo para el mundo. Pensemos cuantos paises nombrarian una comision en serio solo unos meses despues de la guerra, cuando aun la mayoria de los involucrados siguen en sus cargos.

A modo de ejemplo, vean esta frase:

» We place the primary responsibility for these failures on the Prime Minister, the minister of defense and the (outgoing) Chief of Staff. All three made a decisive personal contribution to these decisions and the way in which they were made»

2. La otra razon para leerlo, es que en muchas cosas parece un analisis de errores tipicos de management, simplemente hagan el paralelo: Knesset (parlamento) = Board, Prime Minister = CEO, Minister of Defense y Chief of Staff = VPs, IDF (el ejercito) = equipo

«a. The decision to respond with an immediate, intensive military strike was not based on a detailed, comprehensive and authorized military plan, based on careful study of the complex characteristics of the Lebanon arena. A meticulous examination of these characteristics would have revealed the following: the ability to achieve military gains having significant political-international weight was limited; an Israeli military strike would inevitably lead to missiles fired at the Israeli civilian north; there was not another effective military response to such missile attacks than an extensive and prolonged ground operation to capture the areas from which the missiles were fired – which would have a high «cost» and which did not enjoy broad support. These difficulties were not explicitly raised with the political leaders before the decision to strike was taken. (comentario de Pablo: El CEO le escondio informacion al Board)

Consequently, in making the decision to go to war, the government did not consider the whole range of options, including that of continuing the policy of ‘containment’, or combining political and diplomatic moves with military strikes below the ‘escalation level’, or military preparations without immediate military action – so as to maintain for Israel the full range of responses to the abduction. This failure reflects weakness in strategic thinking, which derives the response to the event from a more comprehensive and encompassing picture. (Comentario de Pablo: poca vision estrategica del CEO)

The support in the cabinet for this move was gained in part through ambiguity in the presentation of goals and modes of operation, so that ministers with different or even contradictory attitudes could support it. The ministers voted for a vague decision, without understanding and knowing its nature and implications. They authorized the commencement of a military campaign without considering how to exit it. (Comentario de Pablo: falta de transparencia con el Board»)

d. Some of the declared goals of the war were not clear and could not be achieved, and in part were not achievable by the authorized modes of military action. (CEO declara objetivos no claros e inalcanzables)

e. The IDF did not exhibit creativity in proposing alternative action possibilities, did not alert the political decision-makers to the discrepancy between its own scenarios and the authorized modes of action, and did not demand – as was necessary under its own plans – early mobilization of the reserves so they could be equipped and trained in case a ground operation would be required. (Interesante, el equipo tiene parte de la culpa, por no alertar correctamente)

f. Even after these facts became known to the political leaders, they failed to adapt the military way of operation and its goals to the reality on the ground. On the contrary, declared goals were too ambitious, and it was publicly stated that fighting would continue until they were achieved. But the authorized military operations did not enable their achievement. (Falta de flexibilidad para adaptarse a un mondo real diferente del que imaginamos)

……..

b. The Prime Minister made up his mind hastily, despite the fact that no detailed military plan was submitted to him and without asking for one. Also, his decision was made without close study of the complex features of the Lebanon front or of the military, political and diplomatic options available to Israel.He made his decision without systematic consultation with others, especially outside the IDF, despite not having experience in external-political and military affairs. In addition, he did not adequately consider political and professional reservations presented to him before the fateful decisions of July 12th. (Duro comentario contra el CEO :))

……
a. The Minister of Defense did not have knowledge or experience in military, political or governmental matters. He also did not have good knowledge of the basic principles of using military force to achieve political goals. (basicamente: el COO es un inepto 😉 )

b. Despite these serious gaps, he made his decisions during this period without systemic consultations with experienced political and professional experts, including outside the security establishment. In addition, he did not give adequate weight to reservations expressed in the meetings he attended. (ademas de inepto, arrogante….. si habre visto COOs como este 😉 )

y ahora el VP Engineering:

Among other things, the COS did not alert the political echelon to the serious shortcomings in the preparedness and the fitness of the armed forces for an extensive ground operation, if that became necessary. In addition, he did not clarify that the military assessments and analyses of the arena was that there was a high probability that a military strike against Hezbollah would make such a move necessary. (Falta de transparencia del VP Engineering )

c. The COS’ responsibility is aggravated by the fact that he knew well that both the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense lacked adequate knowledge and experience in these matters, and by the fact that he had led them to believe that the IDF was ready and prepared and had operational plans fitting the situation. (peor todavia, sabia que sus jefes no entendian y los engano)

Interesante no?

Aca esta el link al report parcial, pero creo que tenemos muchas lecciones para aprender sobre Governancia Corporativa de este informe.

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Esta es la PPT que gano el concurso a la mejor presentacion en slideshare.

Ya la conocia, y me parece un poco larga, pero vale la pena mirarla, especialmente los empleados de IBM afectados por el post anterior (basicamente para entender cuando el jefe les diga: «its not personal, just shift happens»)

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Sera verdad? Si es asi, no es poca cosa, es casi la mitad de la gente de IBM, y marcaria una tendencia muy fuerte al offshoring.

Supongo que la noticia es exagerada pero…..

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Lanzamos el llamado a postulantes para Coordinador del Proyecto, si alguien esta interesado o conoce alguien que pueda estar interesado, manden CV a info@prosperitascp.com

Prospéritas Capital Partners, en conjunto con el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), como administrador de los recursos del Fondo Multilateral de Inversiones (FOMIN), el Laboratorio Tecnológico del Uruguay (LATU) y la Corporación Nacional para el Desarrollo (CND) ha lanzado un programa para impulsar el desarrollo de nuevos emprendimientos dinámicos en el Uruguay. Uno de los componentes es un Fondo de Capital de Arranque para nuevos emprendimiento por lo cual Prospéritas selecciona:

Coordinador de Proyecto

Implica la ejecución y dirección de todas las actividades del proyecto, así como la coordinación y la supervisión todas las áreas que pertenezcan al programa. Asimismo, deberá elaborar y proponer al directorio la estrategia general para ejecutar el programa, elaborar el plan operativo anual y los informes semestrales. Es fundamental implementar un sistema de seguimiento y monitoreo y finalmente coordinar las reuniones que sean necesarias para asegurarse el buen funcionamiento del proyecto.

Requisitos: Profesional recibido en las áreas económicas y empresariales, con experiencia no menor a 3 años en análisis financiero y evaluación de emprendimientos. Asimismo, se requiere un nivel de inglés avanzado, conocimiento de herramientas contables, liderazgo y capacidad para establecer muy buenas relaciones interpersonales.

Enviar currículum a:

info@prosperitascp.com o a Rambla Armenia 3871

hasta el viernes 11 de mayo inclusive.

Más información: www.prosperitascp.com

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El New York Times informa que algunas escuelas americanas estan terminando los programas de un laptop por nino. Vale la pena leerlo para aprender de los potenciales problemas y errores que se cometieron. Obviamente las realidades son otras; en nuestros paises, sin un programa de este tipo muchos ninios nunca tendran acceso a una maquina.

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Segun el Sr. Fuentes (tambien llamado Fuentes Generalmente bine Informadas):

Yahoo Shares Gain on Report About Microsoft’s Takeover Efforts

Evidentemente Microsoft esta buscando hacer un frente unido contra Google. Igual, esta claro que en el Internet de hoy, Yahoo es un dog, y Microsoft también. La pregunta es si juntos se pueden convertir en un leon?

Alguien sabe en que anda AOL, que deberia ser el otro candidato a ser fagocitado?

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Unos datos sacados de una entrevista con Ken Dychtwald, autor de The Power Years: A User’s Guide to the Rest of Your Life:

• De todas las personas en la historia de la humanidad que llegaron a vivir 65 anios, dos tercios estan vivas hoy. Dicho de otra manera, hubo mas cumpleanios de 65 en los ultimos 20 anios que en los 2000 anteriores
• A una persona que llega a los 65 le quedan en promedio 18.7 anios por vivir
• Cuando se crearon las jubilaciones, el porcentaje de la gente que llegaba a la edad de jubilarse era muy bajo. Para llegar hoy al mismo porcentaje, la edad de jubilacion deberia ser 95
• El analogo de la ley de Moore de la longevidad: la esperanza de vida al nacer aumenta en 1.8 anios por decada (Dychtwald habla de 2.5; yo hice numeros, el aumento fue mucho mayor hasta el 1950, y de ahi en mas es 1.8)

Conclusion: El mercado de Medicaa viene en aumento! Y el de velitas de cumple, ni hablar.

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Como comente en un post anterior, nunca habia escuchado de John Osher, pero parece ser un caso de emprendedorismo muy conocido en USA (supongo que yo no lo conocia por no ser en el area de high tech, pero despues de escuchar los cuentos sobre John Osher, creo que deberia redefinir mi percepcion de high tech 😉 )

John Osher, por lo que tengo entendido, fue de todo en su vida, taxista, plomero etc, hasta que se dedico a los juguetes, y tuvo un par de exitos interesantes, entre ellos juegos para bebes como las alfombras con una barra colgante encima, cunas portatiles, etc, y le vendio su empresa a Hasbro.

John Osher practicaba lo que se llama reflective management, o sea un profundo analisis de lo que que habia resultado exitoso y lo que no en cada uno de sus emprendimientos, y despues de la venta a hasbro,los resumio en una lista de errores que habia cometido para asi tenerlos presentes y no volver a cometerlos, la lista contenia 16 errores y luego crecio a 17 (la publico Ariel en un comment anterior y la voy a repetir al final)

Despues de pensar bastante, y con su experiencia en el area de juguetes y sus vinculos en el area de juguetes con fabricantes chinos, decidio lanzar un nuevo producto, el exitoso spinpop, basicamente un chupetin con bateria que gira solo.

Al poco tiempo vendio la empresa por 15 millones.

Despues, basandose en esa lista decidio hacer lo que el consideraba la empresa perfecta, entre las cosas que definio como empresa perfecta, era que tuviera menos de 12 empleados (parece que John odiaba tener que administrar empleados, asi que decidio minimizar su numero contratando gente super sobre calificada para cada cargo ).

Paseando Por los corredores de Walmart se dio cuenta que habia una brecha
muy grande en las ofertas de cepillos dentales, existian cepillos normales por unos
pocos dolares o los electricos (tipo braun) por 80 dolares o mas. Entonces,
basandose en lo que sabia hacer, hizo un cepillo dental a bateria
(curiosamente muy parecido al spin pop) que se vendia por 6 dolares, ademas tenia «features» juguete, incluido el tipico boton «try me»:

Al poco tiempo, le vendio la empresa a Proctor & Gamble por 475 millones

como se imaginaran siguio recorriendo los corredores de Walmart y se encontro con un problema parecido con las maquinas de afeitar, o manuales muy baratas, o electricas a precios de 50 dolares o mas, obviamente hizo lo mismo una maquna de afeitar a pilas: despues de un par de anios vendia 10 millones de dolares (con profit de 3 millones) pero decidio cerrarla porque no crecia lo suficiente (quien pudiera darse ese lujo no?).

Aqui esta la lista de John Osher (perdonen que sea en ingles, pero son las 2 de la manana y no me da la cabeza para traducirla):

Mistake 1: Failing to spend enough time researching the business idea to see if it’s viable. «This is really the most important mistake of all. They say 9 [out] of 10 entrepreneurs fail because they’re undercapitalized or have the wrong people. I say 9 [out] of 10 people fail because their original concept is not viable. They want to be in business so much that they often don’t do the work they need to do ahead of time, so everything they do is doomed. They can be very talented, do everything else right, and fail because they have ideas that are flawed.»

Mistake 2: Miscalculating market size, timing, ease of entry and potential market share. «Most new entrepreneurs get very excited over an idea and don’t look for the truth about how many people will want to buy it. They put together financial projections as part of a presentation to pump up their investors. They say, ‘The market size is 50 million people that could use this product, and if I could only sell to 2 percent of them, I’d be selling a million pieces.’ But 2 percent of a market is a lot. Most products sell way less than 1 percent.»

Mistake 3: Underestimating financial requirements and timing. «They set their financial requirements based on Mistake 1, and they go ahead and make a commitment to this much office space and this many computers, and hire a vice president of sales, and so on. Before they know it, based on sales projections that were wrong to start with, they have created costs that require those projections to be met. So they run out of money.»

Mistake 4: Overprojecting sales volume and timing. «They have already miscalculated the size of the market. Now they overproject their portion of it. They often say ‘There are 200 million homes, and I need to sell [to] x number of them.’ When you break it down, though, a much smaller number of those are really sales prospects. That makes it impossible to make their sales projections.»

Mistake 5: Making cost projections that are too low. «Their cost projections are always too low. Part of the reason is that they project much higher sales. There are also unknown reasons that always come out that usually make costs higher than planned. So on top of everything, their margins are now lower.»

Mistake 6: Hiring too many people and spending too much on offices and facilities. «Now you have lower sales, higher costs and too much overhead. These are the things that you see every day in companies that fail. And they all grow out of that first mistake: failing to research the size and viability of the opportunity.»

Mistake 7: Lacking a contingency plan for a shortfall in expectations. «Even if you’re realistic in your estimates to start, there are things that happen when you start a new business. Your sales ideas may be no good; bank rates may go up; there may be a shipping strike. These aren’t the result of poor planning, but they happen. More often than not, entrepreneurs just feel that something will come along when they need it. They don’t have contingency plans for it not working out at the size and time they want.»

Mistake 8: Bringing in unnecessary partners. «There are certain partners you need. For instance, you often need money, so you’re going to need money partners. But too many times, the guy with the idea takes on all his friends as partners. Many people don’t provide strategic advantages and don’t warrant ownership. But they’re all going to get 25 percent of the company. It’s totally unnecessary, and it’s a mistake. Before people are made partners, they have to earn it.»

Mistake 9: Hiring for convenience rather than skill requirements. «In my first business or two, I hired relatives. It was easy to do, but in many cases, they were the wrong people [for the job]. And it’s hard to fire people, especially if they’re relatives or friends. More time needs to be spent handpicking people based on skill requirements. You really need super-skilled people who can wear more than one hat. It just bogs you down when you hire people who can’t do the job.»

Mistake 10: Neglecting to manage the entire company as a whole. «You see this happen all the time. They’ll spend half their time doing something that represents 5 percent of their business. You have to have a view of your whole company. But too often, the person running it loses that view. They get involved in a part, and they don’t manage the whole. Whether I do this product or that product, whether I hire somebody, [I consider] how they [will] fit long term and short term in the big picture. Constantly try to see your big picture.»

Mistake 11: Accepting that it’s «not possible» too easily rather than finding a way. «I had an engineer who was a very good engineer, but with every toy we developed, he would say, ‘You can’t do it that way.’ I had to be careful not to accept this too easily. I had to look further. If you’re an entrepreneur, you’re going to break new ground. A lot of people are going to say it’s not possible. You can’t accept that too easily. A good entrepreneur is going to find a way.»

Mistake 12: Focusing too much on sales volume and company size rather than profit. «Too much of your management is often based on volume and size. So many entrepreneurs want to say ‘I have a company that’s this big, with this many people, this many square feet of space, and this much sales.’ It’s too much [emphasis] on how fast and big you can build a business rather than how much profit it can make. Bankers and investors don’t like this. Entrepreneurs are so into creating and building, but they also have to learn to become good [businesspeople].»

Mistake 13: Seeking confirmation of your actions rather than seeking the truth. «This often happens: You want to do something, so you talk about it with people who work for you. You talk to [your] family and friends. But you’re only looking for confirmation; you’re not looking for the truth. You’re looking for somebody to tell you you’re right. But the truth always comes out. So we [test] our products, and we listen to what [the testers] say. We give much more value to the truth than to people saying what we’re doing is great.»

Mistake 14: Lacking simplicity in your vision. «Many entrepreneurs go in too many directions at once and do not execute anything well. Rather than focusing on doing everything right to sell to their biggest markets, they divide the attention of their people and their time, trying to do too many things at [one time]. Then their main product isn’t done properly because they’re doing so many different things. They have an idea and say they’re going to sell it to Wal-Mart. Then they say they’re going to sell to [the] Home Shopping Network. And then the gift market looks good. And so on.»

Mistake 15: Lacking clarity of your long-term aim and business purpose. «You should have an idea of what your long-term aim is. It doesn’t mean that won’t change, but when you aim an arrow, you have to be aiming at a target. This [concept will] often come up when people ask ‘How do I pick a product?’ The answer depends on what you’re trying to do. If you’re trying to [create] a billion-dollar company with this product, it may not have a chance. But if you’re trying to make a $5 million company, it can work. Or if you’re trying to create a company [in which] family members can be employed, it can work. Clarity of your business purpose is very important [but] is often not really part of the thought process.»

Mistake 16: Lacking focus and identity. «This was written from the viewpoint of building the company as a valuable entity. The company itself is also a product. Too many companies try to go after too many targets at once and end up with a potpourri rather than a focused business entity with an identity. When you try to make a business, it’s very important to maintain a focus and an identity. Don’t let it become a potpourri, or it loses its power. For instance, you say, ‘We’re already selling to Kmart, so we might as well make a toy because Kmart buys toys.’ If you do that, the company becomes weaker. A company needs to be focused on what it is. Then its power builds from that.»

Mistake 17: Lacking an exit strategy. «Have an exit plan, and create your business to satisfy that plan. For instance, I am thinking I might run my new business for two years and then get out of it. I think it’s an opportunity to make a tremendous amount of money for two years, but I’m not sure [whether] it’s proprietary enough to stop the competition from getting in. So I’m in with an exit strategy of doing it for two years and then winding down. I won’t commit to long-term leases, and after the first year, we’ll start watching the marketplace very closely and start watching inventories.

Simultaneously, I will keep the option open to sell it in case I can’t get something more proprietary. That means I won’t sign international agreements that would kill any opportunity to sell it to a multinational. I will make sure that the patent work is done properly. And I’ll try to make sure manufacturing is up to the standards of any multinational company that I might try to sell it to.

Another exit strategy can be to hand the company to [your] kids someday. The most important thing to do is to build a company with value and profits so you have all the options: Keep the company, sell the company, go public, raise private money [and so on]. A business can be a product, too.»

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Netflix es una compania muy interesante de alquiler de DVDs, el modelo funciona asi:

en vez de alquilar una pelicula por 24 o 48 horas (cuantas veces les paso que la tuvieron que devolver sin verla por falta de tiempo?), se paga una subscripcion mensual que permite tener hasta 3 peliculas simultaneas, cuando se devuleve una (por correo) se recibe una nueva (de una lista pedida por internet) tambien por correo. El modelo parece mucho ams comodo que el tipico dvd rental.

Pero lo nuevo de hoy es la nueva politica de vacaciones de netflix: «tomense todas las vacaciones que quieran, cuando quieran, siempre y cuando cumplan con el trabajo que tienen que hacer».

Basicamente es aplicar la politica de: «vengan a trabajar, no al lugar de trabajo»

Lo interesante es que esto seria ilegal en uruguay……

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Estuvo Michael Dell (si el Michael Dell de Dell computers) en el Summit de Endeavor.

Realmente un tipo impresionante, mucha energia con una vision muy clara, dos cosas que dijo bastante relevantes a este blog:

Alguien le pregunto si era activo en Second Life:

«soy activo pero en Stealth Mode (es decir camuflado), pero entro todas las semanas, y ademas ya tenemos una fabrica de PCs en SL»

Ademas Dell tiene un blog llamado ideastorm, a traves del cual escucha ideas de los clientes, una de las ultimas ideas que postearon fue que Dell compre la isla de Cuba……, pero segun Michael les llegan ideas mas aplicables a su negocio

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